By Ryan Lee
On 12th February, Bitcoin (BTC) hit $49,500 marking a new high since December 2021. The impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs and market’s anticipation for Bitcoin Halving in May plays a vital role in the market surge. From 1st Jan 2024 to Jan 10th (Bitcoin ETF approval date), BTC trading volumes grew from $16B to $50B – a 300% increase. This is the impact of the approved BTC ETF. However, the effects of Bitcoin Halving are yet to factor in.
Historically Bitcoin Halvings have resulted in driving BTC prices to new ATHs in the preceding year. The first halving occurred in November 2012. Within one year, the price of Bitcoin rose from a high of $13 to $1,152 (in December 2013), and reached its peak one year and one month after the halving. The second halving occurred in July 2016, when the price of Bitcoin rose from a high of $664 to $17,760 (December 2017), reaching its peak one year and five months after the halving. The third halving occurred in May 2020, when the price of Bitcoin rose from a high of $9,734 to $67,549 (April-November 2021), reaching its peak one year and six months after the halving.
The fourth halving will occur in April 2024. It is expected that the price of Bitcoin will rise from the highest point in the US dollar to the US dollar (April-November 2021), and the price is expected to peak one year and five months after the halving. A similar trend has been observed with the previous three halvings with prices increasing over to hit a new BTC price ATH.
As of now, there’s no upcoming news that may have a price correlation with Bitcoin except the halving which may provide returns in the medium to long term. It’s also important to take market’s psychological levels, such as BTC prices ranging from $50K to previous ATH, which may cause larger price retracements.
$50K Bitcoin Macro-factors
Bitcoin rose by about 12% in the second week of February 2024, with the currency price reaching a maximum of $48,800, which is about to approach the integer mark of $50,000. In the last bull market, the price of Bitcoin was between US$38,000 and US$48,000, which was the main trading range, and a large number of chips were concentrated in this position. The current surge of Bitcoin’s price is mainly due to:
- The U.S. SEC officially approved the Bitcoin ETF, which allows investors around the world to invest in Bitcoin through compliance channels. This will undoubtedly bring more attention and capital injection to Bitcoin.
- There was a short-term decline after the adoption of the Bitcoin ETF. This was due to the switching of positions by some holders of Grayscale and the selling of some equity holders.
- As the grayscale sell-off came to an end, the overall Bitcoin ETF market began to see daily net inflows in and out, and this rhythm is still maintained. BlackRock, for example, has opened its own sales network to sell Bitcoin ETFs.
- Bitcoin’s fourth halving is coming soon, and the market is confident that the price of Bitcoin will reach a record high after this halving. At the same time, the Federal Reserve will also start an interest rate cut cycle this year, which is a good signal for risk assets and emerging markets.
- A series of excellent projects have built on the Bitcoin ecosystem, which has promoted its further development, increasing the demand for its underlying asset BTC. This allows more players to participate in the Bitcoin ecosystem increasing its awareness and adoption globally.
(The author is Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, and the views expressed in this article are his own)