Thriving in 2024: Discovering Global Economic Trends and India’s Bold Innovations!
By Nishant Srivastava
As we step into the unfolding chapters of 2024, the global economic stage sets the scene for diverse expectations and strategic initiatives. From anticipated interest rate shifts to visionary budget proposals, this year promises to be a testament to resilience and innovation:
Interest Rate Divergence -A Global Perspective
In the intricate web of global economics, interest rate expectations diverge across continents. In India, speculation brews over a potential repo rate cut exceeding 0.5%, hinting at a potential easing cycle in the latter half of the year. Meanwhile, Australian major banks brace for stability throughout 2024, projecting a potential cut between August and December. The Commonwealth Bank, echoing this sentiment, envisions a reduction to 2.85% by May 2025. In Europe, a unified vision anticipates a substantial 100 basis points cut in the European Central Bank’s deposit rate by year-end. Across the Atlantic, the U.S. Federal Reserve, guided by insights from Morgan Stanley, seems poised to maintain current interest rates in March, finely adjusting based on the delicate balance of job growth and core prices.
Budget Ambitions: India’s Fiscal Outlook
Shifting our focus to India’s fiscal canvas, the government charts an ambitious course aiming to trim the fiscal deficit to 4.50% of GDP by the fiscal year 2025-26. Despite aiming for a lower deficit in 2024-25, bold forecasts predict a 33% surge in infrastructure investment, reaching a substantial INR 10 lakh crore (3.3% of GDP). The healthcare sector anticipates a higher budget allocation, aiming at 2.5% of GDP. Railways, in their quest to reduce road dependency, prepare for increased funding
Overall expenditure is projected to witness robust growth, reaching Rs 47.4 lakh crore in 2024-25. In this election year, expectations revolve around striking a delicate balance between populist measures and fiscal prudence. Stakeholders envision a forward-thinking budget championing innovation, research and development, and technological advancements, especially in domains like Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR). The call for a reduction in the corporate tax rate echoes as a crucial step towards bolstering global competitiveness and reinforcing India’s technological leadership.
Key Players in 2024
Renewable energy takes center stage, projected to constitute a remarkable 36% of global energy usage. India’s commitment to substantial infrastructure spending and favorable government policies positions the real estate sector favorably on the global stage.
Tech & Retail Sector Evolution & Job Creation
The technology sector, in a relentless pursuit of evolution, is propelled forward by the widespread adoption of FinTech solutions.
The retail sector sets its sights on a significant market size, aiming for a whopping $1.4 trillion by 2024. Simultaneously, the food industry, a cornerstone of job creation, is poised to generate a staggering 9 million employment opportunities.
Anticipation Surrounding the Budget
In the realm of anticipation, all eyes are on the interim Union Budget 2024–25. A healthcare roadmap takes center stage, emphasizing long-term infrastructure financing, the expansion of medical and nursing colleges, and critical fiscal reforms in health insurance. As India navigates through the intricate tapestry of economic dynamics, the coming year promises not only challenges but a canvas ripe for ground-breaking initiatives and transformative growth.
Embracing a Year of Challenges and Growth
As we traverse the evolving economic landscapes of 2024, the global and Indian narratives unfold with a blend of challenges and unprecedented opportunities. The year is not merely a passage of time but a canvas where resilience, innovation, and strategic foresight paint a picture of enduring prosperity.
(The author is By Nishant Srivastava, CEO, Torus Private Wealth, and the views expressed in this article are there own)
